Is this the case for the Edmonton Oilers?
The Edmonton Oilers entered the 2025-26 NHL season with sky-high expectations, fresh off repeat Stanley Cup Final appearances. Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl continue to be the league's marquee duo, capable of carrying a team through sheer offensive firepower. Yet, as November's Canadian winter sets in, the thermostat rises in Oil Country over the shift from Cup dreams to crisis mode. At the heart of the storm?
It seems to be time to admit this openly. It is goaltending. Fans are furious, media pundits are pounding the table, and McDavid himself has hinted of a situation with the "concerning" state of play between the pipes. With Stuart Skinner and Calvin Pickard posting the league's worst combined save percentage at .868 through 25 games, the question echoes through the Oilers fan base:
Is the outrage justified? And more critically, do the Oilers need a new goaltender to salvage their season?
To answer, we must weigh the evidence: the tandem's performance over the past two seasons, the team's middling standings at present, the unforgiving November schedule, and the brutal difficulty of their slate. Spoiler: The fans aren't wrong. Goaltending isn't the only problem, but it's the gaping wound that's bleeding Edmonton dry.
Let's start with the numbers, because they don't lie. Over the 2023-24 and 2024-25 seasons, Skinner emerged as Edmonton's primary starter, posting a respectable .905 save percentage (SV%) and 2.80 goals-against average (GAA) in the regular season across 82 games. He showed flashes of brilliance in the playoffs, particularly during the Oilers' epic comebacks against Vancouver and Dallas, where his .912 SV% helped stem the tide.
Pickard, the reliable backup, was a revelation in the 2024 playoffs, going 3-1 with a .932 SV% when Skinner faltered early against the Canucks. Their tandem was serviceable—good enough to propel Edmonton to within two wins of the Cup in 2024 and a rematch loss to Florida in 2025. But "serviceable" in the regular season often crumbles under playoff pressure, where elite goaltending separates contenders from pretenders. Skinner's postseason SV% dipped to .898 in 2025, and the Panthers' Sergei Bobrovsky (.932) exposed the gap.
Fast-forward to now, and it seems like regression on steroids. (Not denying there have been great performances.) Through 25 games in 2025-26, the Oilers rank dead last in team SV% at .860—the worst mark since their inaugural 1979-80 season. Skinner, the presumptive No. 1, has a .862 SV% and 3.45 GAA, yanked after allowing four goals on eight shots in an 8-3 embarrassment to Dallas on November 25.
Pickard fares no better at .870 SV% and 3.60 GAA, his backup role exposed in losses like the 9-1 rout to Colorado on November 8. This isn't variance; it's a crisis.
Edmonton has allowed the most high-danger chances at five-on-five and ranks near the bottom in defensive metrics, but expected SV% models show their goalies underperforming by 2-3% below projections—enough to turn close games into blowouts. Pundits like Matthew Barnaby and Brian Burke have hammered this point post-Dallas: It's not just the pipes; it's the porous play in front of them. Yet, when your netminders can't stop a C-grade shot, as one analyst quipped, the blame sharpens.
The standings tell a tale of squandered potential. At 10-10-5 (25 points) as of November 26, the Oilers sit outside the Western Conference playoff picture, clinging to a wildcard spot but trailing Pacific Division leaders like Vegas and Los Angeles by six points. October's 5-4-3 start felt like a dodged bullet—a slight improvement over 2024's sluggish 5-5-1—but November has been a four-loss-in-five skid, including gift-wrapped leads blown against Tampa Bay and Florida.
McDavid's November resurgence (seven goals, 12 assists) masks deeper woes: The offense hums at 3.07 goals per game (17th in the NHL), but the defense leaks 3.07 against (also 17th), with goaltending inflating that to a tire fire. This core group—post two Finals runs—knows the window is narrow. As GM Stan Bowman admitted after GM meetings, the goalies have been "average," but in a top-heavy cap crunch, average won't cut it for Cup contention.
Timing amplifies the panic. It's late November, with 57 games left, but the schedule's brutality has been withering. Edmonton's November featured a grueling seven-game Eastern Conference road trip over 11 days—Philly, Columbus, Carolina, Buffalo, Washington, Tampa, Florida—against playoff-caliber foes, many fresh off rest.
Factor in the compressed calendar (44 games in 93 days from November to January due to the 2026 Olympics break), and it's no wonder fatigue shows. The Oilers have played more hockey than most over the past two years (two Finals marathons), shortening their offseason recharge. A December East Coast trek looms, but post-holidays, the slate softens—no more Eastern jaunts, more divisional matchups. If they tread water now, a surge is possible. But with Skinner yanked repeatedly and Pickard flailing, every road pothole feels like a cliff.
Even the casual observer know the pain is real, and it's bipartisan: Fans on X (formerly Twitter) are apoplectic, with posts decrying "trash goaltending" and media favoritism toward Skinner. Pundits echo it—Daily Faceoff's Tyler Yaremchuk calls it the "missing piece" for the Cup puzzle. Even insiders whisper of near-misses: Reports surfaced of a potential shakeup post-road trip, halted by player loyalty to Pickard, who saved them in 2024 playoffs. Colorado's blueprint—dumping early struggles with Alexandar Georgiev (.874 SV%) for deadline acquisitions—looms large. Names like Tristan Jarry (.914 SV%, Penguins) or Jordan Binnington (Blues) float in rumors, though cap hell ($9M+ on seven players) complicates it. (Good luck to any of that. The isn't a team in the league wanting to load up the Oilers with a top-of-the-line goaltender. It's probably a management game of hide and seek, or keep away.)
So, yes—this is the case for the Oilers. The past two seasons proved Skinner and Pickard can grind through a regular season and rally in spots, but 2025-26 exposes their ceiling as too low for McDavid's prime. Defensive lapses (Oilers are bottom in chances against) exacerbate it, but no goalie thrives behind that sieve without elite rebound control or mental steel—traits lacking here.
At this time of year, with a punishing schedule easing soon, they can't afford to chase. A trade—perhaps packaging Skinner for a proven vet like Jarry or Elvis Merzlikins—is essential. Loyalty is admirable, but Cups demand ruthlessness. Edmonton needs a new goaltender not just to plug holes, but to restore belief. The fans' fury isn't hyperbole; it's a wake-up call. Ignore it, and this dynasty-in-waiting becomes a what-if.
Written By Grok, as requested then edited and produced by Mack McColl
