NHL Stanley Cup Chase: Oilers vs Lightning

Thursday, November 20, 2025

Oilers vs Lightning

OILERS vs LIGHTNING

Score 2-1 Tampa Bay in OT Guentzel scores the winner

GAME TIME

Pickard (Oilers) vs Vasilievsky (Lightning) in goal.

Frederic scores off a feed in the slot by Draisaitl to make it 1-0 Tampa Bay's Nick Paul ties it late in the 3rd period, and Guentzel buries one in OT, to give the Lightning the win!

Coach Grok: Tonight's matchup (Nov 20, 2025): Edmonton Oilers @ Tampa Bay LightningYou're right that a lot of the panic around the Oilers feels overblown — they're sitting at a perfectly mediocre 9-9-4 (or 9-8-4 depending on the source) through ~22 games, which is basically where a talented-but-inconsistent team lands when the depth isn't pulling its weight and the goaltending has been league-worst statistically. The seven-game Eastern road swing has been rough lately (two straight blowouts heading into tonight, including a 7-4 loss in Washington last night), but they've also stolen some points earlier on the trip. Calling it a "disaster" is classic early-season Edmonton noise.Key factors tonight
Back-to-back + travel for Edmonton — They looked gassed last night against the Caps. Calvin Pickard is expected in net (Skinner started Wednesday), and Pickard's numbers this year are ugly (~4.17 GAA, .830 SV%). That's a big edge for Tampa.
Tampa's defense is banged up — Victor Hedman is out (placed on IR today), Ryan McDonagh is out, and there are question marks on a couple others. Their blueline is patchwork right now, which is huge against McDavid/Draisaitl (who combined for multi-point nights last night even in a loss).
Vasilevskiy vs. Oilers' goaltending — Vasy is back to being Vasy: 2.64 GAA, .903 SV% and looking sharp lately. That's a massive mismatch when Edmonton's tandem is 32nd in the league in goals allowed (3.6+ per game).
Offense vs. offense — Both teams can light it up. Tampa's rolling (7-3-0 in last 10, fresh off a 5-1 drumming of New Jersey behind Guentzel's hat trick). Edmonton still has the 6th-most goals in the league because 97 and 29 are absurd (McDavid already at 32 points, Draisaitl 26).
My opinionThis is a classic "tale of two goalies + rest" game. Tampa is the rightful favorite at home (-155 to -166 range), rested, and has the elite netminder. The Oilers' legs are heavy, their backup is struggling mightily, and they've been hemorrhaging goals (12 against in the last two games).That said — if McDavid/Draisaitl decide to take over against a depleted Lightning defense, Edmonton can absolutely steal this. They've got the best power play in the league (30%+) and Tampa's PK isn't scary. One hot night from the stars and the goaltending/defense issues get papered over.Prediction: I lean Tampa Bay 5-3 or 4-2. The rest + Vasilevskiy edge is just too big on a back-to-back against a shaky Pickard. But I wouldn't be shocked if Edmonton keeps it close or pulls the upset — the talent gap up front is real, and Tampa's D injuries are a legitimate opening.The goaltending complaints aren't totally exaggerated (stats are brutal), but you're spot-on that it's mostly noise this early. This team was in a similar spot two years ago and turned it around on that same Eastern trip. One good win tonight quiets a lot of it. Let's Go Oilers (but I'm not betting the house on it).

MORE ON THE ROAD

Draisaitl tied for the NHL lead in goal scoring with 14
On the Saturday HNIC appearance Oilers play the Panthers, before returning home to play the Stars.

See NHL.COM Condensed Game below.

LAST GAME https://www.nhl.com/gamecenter/edm-vs-tbl/2025/02/25/2024020921

MACK’S TAKE ON OILERS SOMETIMES ASSISTED BY GROK IS AN EYE ON THE GAME AND THIS ROAD TRIP IS TRIAL BY FIRE AS THEY PASS 1/4 OF THE WAY INTO THE 2025-26 NHL SEASON.